Unfortunately, these high-sounding declarations fail to differentiate between context-related and structural causes; harsh reality is very significantly different, for at least two reasons:

• The sharp context-related reduction in CO2 emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023 [1]. Due to the exceptional unavailability of nuclear reactors in 2022, French electricity was more carbon-intensive than usual, with 55 g CO2 per kWh produced, leading to the emission of 24.2 Mt CO2 in 2022. In 2023, with a return to better nuclear availability (accounting for more than 2/3 of the reduction in emissions), combined with good production from renewable sources, notably hydroelectric, electricity returned to a carbon content of less than 35 g CO2 per kWh, in line with the average of previous years, leading to emissions of only 16.7 Mt CO2 in 2023.

 In short, between 2022 and 2023, electricity generation alone reduced its CO2 emissions by 24.2 - 16.7 = 7.5 Mt, or just over 1.8% of the country's total 2022 emissions.

• The second major source of CO2 emissions reduction comes from industry. Overall, it is of the order of 6 Mt CO2 between 2022 and 2023, or just under 1.5% of the country's total 2022 emissions. This stems mainly from industries with significant heat demand, supplied by fossil fuels, mainly natural gas, in particular: metallurgy; chemical industry; construction materials; food processing industry; etc.

Yet this emissions reduction is due essentially [2] to production cutbacks and, very secondarily, to improvements in the efficiency of industrial processes. We are thus here again in the realm of context-related rather than structural reductions.

All in all, the largely context-related emissions reductions of these two sectors alone account for around 1.8 + 1.5 = 3.3% of the country's total reductions relative to 2022. Even if they include a small share attributable to structural improvement, the balance of 4.8 - 3.3 = 1.5% is too small to represent a significant structural reduction. The country's real track record is thus far from the - 4.8% announced, and this is bad news.

In conclusion, before touting a reputedly historic result, in this instance a matter of communication rather than a reflection of reality, it would be highly advisable to carry out an in-depth analysis to differentiate structural and context-related contributions as precisely and indisputably as possible.

This is the prerequisite to understanding and acting efficiently; self-delusion can only lead to defeat.

[1] Source: RTE data (RTE is France’s Transmission System Operator)

[2] Source: Article published in the daily newspaper Le Figaro dated 22 March 2024, France “on track” to meet its CO2 emissions target by Anne-Laure Frémont.

Note: the article relies on the CITEPA data (CITEPA is France’s Technical Reference Center for Air Pollution and Climate Change).

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